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College Football's Biggest NIL Value Movers This Week

The short answer

termiNIL's Oct. 6-14, 2026 snapshot shows NC State quarterback CJ Bailey with the week's largest dollar decline, down 45.4% to a modeled $1.53 million after a D grade. Texas A&M cornerback Dezz Ricks posted the sharpest reversal, up 150.3% to $811K. Quarterbacks account for 13 of the 20 largest graded dollar swings this week, the most volatile position group on either list.

Key takeaways
  • CJ Bailey (NC State, QB) posted the week's largest dollar decline, down 45.4% to a modeled $1.53M after carrying a D grade (36).
  • Dezz Ricks (Texas A&M, CB) posted the largest percentage swing among graded movers, up 150.3% to $811K after bottoming out the prior week.
  • Gio Lopez (Wake Forest, QB) posted the week's largest dollar gain, up 31.6% to a modeled $3.52M.
  • 8 of the week's 10 largest graded dollar losses already carried a D grade or worse before this snapshot.
  • Quarterbacks make up 13 of the 20 largest graded dollar swings this week: 7 of the top 10 gainers and 6 of the top 10 losers.
  • termiNIL now prices 15,090 players for a combined market of $3.27B, with a $101K median valuation; termiNIL's audit currently holds 234 players out of rankings.

NC State quarterback CJ Bailey posted the largest dollar decline in this week's termiNIL snapshot, down 45.4% to a modeled $1.53 million after carrying a D grade (36). On the other side of the ledger, Texas A&M cornerback Dezz Ricks posted the sharpest reversal of anyone termiNIL tracks, up 150.3% to $811K. Both numbers come from the same comparison window, Oct. 6 to Oct. 14, 2026, across the 3,864 players termiNIL revalued in that span.

This week's list is filtered before it's ranked. Players with no performance grade swing in large, uniform percentages when their depth-chart role changes — the model's role multiplier is quantized, so a backup dropping from second string to third string loses value in a fixed band no matter who they are. That is a real part of how termiNIL prices depth, but it is not a market story, so every player below carries a grade, and the swing is a graded one.

Who Lost the Most NIL Value This Week?

PlayerTeamPosChangeNew Value
CJ BaileyNC StateQBdown 45.4%$1.53M
Jayden DenegalSan Diego StateQBdown 40.1%$1.29M
Caden VeltkampFlorida AtlanticQBdown 42.3%$1.16M
Matt ZollersMissouriQBdown 32.1%$1.11M
Sean WilsonDelawareWRdown 55.2%$387K
Skyler LocklearMissouri StateQBdown 48.6%$497K
Carter PabstIowa StateWRdown 87.0%$69K
Braden StreeterDelawareQBdown 55.9%$362K
Jaron TibbsKansas StateWRdown 44.4%$543K
Bryce LovettFloridaOTdown 67.0%$198K

Eight of these ten already carried a D grade or worse heading into this snapshot — Bailey, Denegal, Veltkamp, Zollers, Wilson, Locklear (an F at 9), Tibbs, and Lovett all lost between 32% and 67% of an already-discounted value. Carter Pabst and Braden Streeter are the exceptions: both carry a passable grade (C+ and C), and their steep drops line up with a depth-chart move within their own role tier rather than a grade collapse.

Who Gained the Most NIL Value This Week?

PlayerTeamPosChangeNew Value
Gio LopezWake ForestQBup 31.6%$3.52M
Alonza BarnettUCFQBup 20.1%$3.71M
Dezz RicksTexas A&MCBup 150.3%$811K
Sam LeavittLSUQBup 10.5%$4.37M
Beau PribulaVirginiaQBup 15.6%$3.06M
Adrian WilsonArizona StateSup 134.7%$697K
Ashton DanielsFlorida StateQBup 14.8%$2.68M
Colton JosephWisconsinQBup 8.4%$4.01M
Fred JohnsonSouth CarolinaLBup 97.2%$623K
Amari OdomSyracuseQBup 20.3%$1.82M

Dezz Ricks, Adrian Wilson, and Fred Johnson are the three biggest percentage gainers on this list, and all three are defensive players who gained between 97% and 150% off a small base value on the strength of a high grade — Wilson carries an A+ (99), Johnson a B+ (88). The established starting quarterbacks on this list — Leavitt, Joseph, Daniels, Pribula, Barnett — gained far less in percentage terms, 8% to 20%, but each of those points is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars because they started from a multi-million-dollar base.

Why Are Quarterbacks Dominating Both Lists?

Thirteen of the 20 largest graded dollar swings this week belong to quarterbacks: seven of the ten biggest gains (Lopez, Barnett, Leavitt, Pribula, Daniels, Joseph, Odom) and six of the ten biggest losses (Bailey, Denegal, Veltkamp, Zollers, Locklear, Streeter). No other position comes close to that share on either side. Quarterback is where termiNIL's model concentrates its highest valuations, so a grade swing that would move a few hundred thousand dollars at another position moves a million or more at quarterback — the position isn't more volatile, its dollars just carry more weight per point of grade.

Does termiNIL Leave Any Valuations Out of This Comparison?

Yes, on purpose. termiNIL's audit process currently holds 234 players out of rankings and blog callouts entirely because their pricing looks implausible on its face. Separately, 154 audit-flagged players are excluded from this week's movers comparison specifically, and every ungraded player is excluded from the lists above for the depth-chart reason explained up top. None of the 20 players named in this post are on the audit-excluded list.

How Big Is the College Football NIL Market Right Now?

termiNIL prices 15,090 players across 138 programs for a combined market of $3.27B, with a $101K median valuation and 473 players above $1 million. That market total reflects every tracked player, including the ones excluded from rankings and from this list, because an aggregate has to match what the site shows everywhere else even when individual rows don't.

Check any player's current valuation, grade, and confidence level in the termiNIL terminal, or read how NIL valuations are calculated for the full methodology behind these numbers. For the prior snapshot, see the Oct. 1 movers report.

Frequently asked questions

What is termiNIL's NIL value movers list?
It's a comparison of termiNIL's modeled valuations across two snapshots, isolating the largest graded dollar and percentage changes. This one compares Oct. 6, 2026 to Oct. 14, 2026 across 3,864 players with a valuation on both dates, inside a market termiNIL prices at $3.27B total.
Why did CJ Bailey's NIL value fall this week?
NC State's starting quarterback carries a D grade (36) despite 65,907 followers, and his modeled value fell 45.4% to $1.53M as termiNIL's model absorbed a weak on-field grade. It's the largest single dollar decline of the week among the players termiNIL tracks.
Why are quarterbacks dominating both the gainers and losers lists?
Thirteen of the week's 20 largest graded valuation swings are quarterbacks, seven gaining value and six losing it. The position carries some of the highest valuations on the board, so the same percentage grade swing moves more dollars for a quarterback than for most other positions.
Does termiNIL include every player's valuation change in this list?
No. termiNIL excludes players with no performance grade from this comparison. Their valuation swings come from a quantized depth-chart role multiplier rather than a graded performance change, and including them would read as market movement that is really just a role reassignment.
Are all valuations on this list confirmed accurate?
No. termiNIL's audit process currently holds 234 players out of rankings and callouts because their pricing looks implausible, a seven-figure value with no grade and zero snaps, for example. 154 audit-flagged players are excluded from this week's movers comparison specifically, and none of the names in this post are on that excluded list.

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Methodology note. All player valuations on termiNIL are modeled estimates produced by a transparent bottom-up factor model — position base × role × production grade × team × market × social reach. They are not reported salaries, verified contract figures, or statements of fact about any athlete's actual compensation, and they are calibrated on an ongoing basis against confirmed market data. termiNIL is independent and is not affiliated with the NCAA, the College Sports Commission, any school, collective, or agency.

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