The Most Valuable Freshmen in College Football (NIL Rankings)

Most "top freshman" lists in college football are recruiting rankings wearing a dollar sign — a star rating restated as a number nobody can check. termiNIL prices true freshmen the same way it prices every other player: role, grade, team context and market data run through one model. That produces a real top

1. It also exposes exactly where the model is guessing.

Julian Lewis, Colorado's true freshman quarterback, tops the list at a modeled $2.39 million. But look past the top few names and the list turns into a wall of backup quarterbacks the model has never seen take a college snap. That's not a bug to hide. It's the story.

Who is the most valuable freshman in college football?

termiNIL modeled value for Julian Lewis at $2.39 million, built on a medium-confidence C grade and a following of 326,658. He's the only true freshman in the model valued above $2 million, and he plays behind a Colorado roster that ranks 65th of 138 programs by total value — proof the model isn't just re-ranking blue-chip rosters top to bottom.

Anthony Jones, an Oregon edge rusher, is next at $1.45 million and carries an A- grade — the only top-10 freshman with termiNIL's highest confidence tier. Behind him: Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson ($1.38M), Baylor wide receiver Taz Williams ($1.03M) and Texas A&M offensive tackle Lamont Rogers ($999K).

Why are so many of the top freshmen quarterbacks?

Quarterback carries the highest median value of any position group in termiNIL's model, $580,000, ahead of edge rusher ($205,000) and every other position. That premium is structural — one player touches the ball on nearly every snap and the position has the shallowest depth chart on the roster — and it shows up hardest among freshmen, where a true freshman's role often outweighs a track record the model can't yet see. 21 of the top 25 valued freshmen in the country play quarterback.

How confident is the model in these numbers?

Less confident than for an established starter. termiNIL tags every valuation with a confidence level tied to whether the player has an on-field performance grade. 19 of the top 25 valued freshmen — everyone from No. 6 on down except Roman Gagliano — carry the model's lowest tier, "none," because they haven't played a college snap the model can grade yet. Those numbers lean on recruiting profile, depth chart role and team context rather than proven production, and they cluster tightly between $820,000 and $975,000 as a result: the model's way of pricing a real position premium without pretending it knows more than it does.

The gap between the No. 1 freshman and the No. 25 freshman is roughly 2.9x — $2.39 million to $820,000 — a tighter spread than you'd see atop the all-player rankings, where the model has years of production to separate players by. That compression is itself a signal: uncertainty pulls valuations toward each other, not apart.

It's also worth noting termiNIL is currently holding 196 players leaguewide out of its rankings entirely while an ongoing audit reviews valuations flagged as implausible. None of the players above are among them, but it's a reminder that a model repricing 14,519 players nightly will occasionally get one wrong before a human catches it.

The freshman market in context

These 25 players sit inside a $3.00 billion total market spanning 14,519 players, where the median valuation is just $69,000. Every name on this list is already inside the top tier of that market before playing a single college season that counts toward their grade — which is exactly why the confidence caveat matters more here than on almost any other ranking termiNIL publishes.

Read more on how termiNIL calculates a valuation, or pull any of these players up directly in the terminal to see the grade, snap count and social data behind the number.

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